So there it is, Bayern Munich vs. Chelsea FC in the finals of this year's Champions League (CL) tournament. All the sports pundits had a Madrid vs. Barcelona final on their betting line but I called this one right.
It's a funny things about sports - people tend to be swayed by their passions, never by statistical probable outcome. Even the oddsmakers, however objective they attempt to be, include intangible factors in their odds predictions. Hence, before the start of the semifinals, the bookmakers at BetFair, for example, predicted that Barcelona (1/6) would qualify for the finals over Chelsea (9/2). Similarly, Madrid (1/2) was favored to qualify over Bayern (6/4).
As far as winning the whole enchilada, Barça was odds on favorite to win at (5/6), with Madrid at (5/2), Bayern at (9/2) and Chelsea, the dark horse, at (10/1). Even after Madrid had lost the first leg 2-1, betting house Bet365 still had them on top (4/7) to win and continue to the finals.
However, after last week's first leg when Chelsea beat Barça 1-0 and Bayern beat Madrid 2-1, I predicted a Bayern-Chelsea final. This prediction had nothing to do with the home teams' respective wins, it was based entirely on the scores.
The strategy behind CL matches once teams reach the round of 16 (2 match series: away and home) is quite simple - score an away goal and don't let your opponent score on the return match. Away goals are important because they are used as tie breakers. Barcelona lost because they didn't score a goal at Stamford Bridge and allowed Chelsea to score at the Nou Camp. Madrid lost, despite having scored a goal at the Allianz Arena, because they allowed Bayern to score at the Bernabéu. Mourinho said it himself, if Bayern want go through to the final, they have to score at the Bernabéu. And that's exactly what they did. It's that simple.
Ok, maybe you're thinking that the BM-RMA series ended in a 3-3 tie with each team having scored an away goal. True and that's why the match went into overtime and then penalties. However, Madrid did not lose because they were fatigued or mentally exhausted or because they had missed 3 out of their first 4 penalties. Madrid did not lose this series at the Bernabéu; they lost it at the Allianz Arena when they allowed Bayern to score the winning goal on the last play of the match, just as Barcelona did not lose the series at the Nou Camp. That series was lost when the Catalans failed to score at Stamford Bridge.
It's not simply a question of scoring more goals than your opponent. Teams at the semifinal stage are usually very evenly matched and game scores reflecting a two or more goal advantage have only occurred in 13 of the the last 44 semifinal matches dating back to the 2000-2001 season. Furthermore, field advantage does not necessarily imply a victory for the home team.
So who's going to win this edition of the Champions League? Everyone says Bayern Munich will win. On paper, they certainly seem to be the stronger of the two teams. But then again, no one gave Chelsea a chance, and yet, here they are. I'm gonna go against the odds on this one and predict a Chelsea win.
Showing posts with label football. Show all posts
Showing posts with label football. Show all posts
Thursday, April 26, 2012
Monday, April 23, 2012
El Clásico: where football died (the sequel)
The beautiful game is not so beautiful
I mentioned UEFA's hidden agenda in Part I of this post. Actually, it's not so hidden. Michel Platini, head of UEFA, has on numerous occasions stated that he is a Barça fan. Such is his power that major European football clubs are questioning the impartiality of the refs in Barça's European matches. The sheer volume of news articles, blogs and commentaries regarding the Barça bias is mind boggling.
Here are just a few of the articles I've found: Another Prick in The Wall, a name you just gotta love; a post from a Manchester United blogger on ManUtdTalk.com; Platini's dislike of Madrid on Goal.com; Platini's admiration for Barça on Goal.com; an opinion from The Army of White which looks more like a page out of the Ku Klux Klan and which is also posted on Xabi Alonso's Facebook page.
If you're thinking this type of controversy (polemic as they call it here) just started with the arrival of Jose Mourinho, I give you this link of a Barça match played back in 2008. I saw the match on TV. After being reduced to 10 men on a really dubious red card, Espanyol did well to keep Barça at bay. After the full 90 minutes, the game was tied at one goal apiece. Five minutes of injury time were added by the 4th referee. At 6:40 of added time the referee awarded Barça a late penalty on another really questionable call. After Barça made the ensuing spot kick the game was ended.
More recently, Pepe was sent off for a hard foul on Dani Alves during 2011 Champion's League (CL) first leg semifinal match at the Bernabéu. The way Alves was writhing about in pain on the pitch, it would certainly seem like a justifiable call. But was it? See for yourselves in this video. How about the 2010 CL semifinal return match against Inter Milan at the Camp Nou when Thiago Motta fouled Sergio Busquets? Was that worthy of a red card or was it a Busquets dive? See it here for yourselves. Observe how Busquets "peeps" to see if the ref carded Motta. Clearly a performance worthy of an Oscar. In fact, all you have to do is type "Busquets dive" on Google and be amazed at the number of results you get.
Perhaps the referees weren't at the correct viewing angles to see these fouls. Hence, we have to give them the benefit of the doubt. However, this type of theatrics is precisely the justification that warrants the implementation of instant replays.
But it gets worse. In the 2009 CL semifinal return match at Stamford bridge, referee Tom Henning Ovrebo officiated what can only be described as the most scandalous display of Barça favoritism to date. To this day, Ovrebo still gets the occasional death threat email for that match. Just recently, he admitted to errors which cost Chelsea the final of the Champion's League game that year.
So is Real Madrid just being sour grapes or is there really a conspiracy to favor Barcelona? I've already shown that Platini does not disguise his admiration of everything Barça and his disgust for Madrid. But here's the kicker and Mourinho, in his famous "Why?" rant against Barcelona in 2011, was not entirely wrong. The article centers around Senes Erzik, executive vicepresident of UEFA's Referee Committee and right hand man of Angel Maria Villar, president of UEFA's Referee Committee and the Royal Spanish Football Federation. The icing on this cake is that Erzik is also project director at UNICEF. Remember that Barcelona's main sponsor was UNICEF up until the current season. At the very least, there was a very strong vested interest between UEFA and UNICEF to favor Barcelona - money. A club stands to make millions from gate receipts, merchandising and TV rights for every stage they progress in the Champion's League. The eventual winner gets an additional bonus paycheck.
I started this post in Part I by saying that football is the greatest sport in the world with the dumbest rules ever conceived. In the last part, we'll review some these rules.
I mentioned UEFA's hidden agenda in Part I of this post. Actually, it's not so hidden. Michel Platini, head of UEFA, has on numerous occasions stated that he is a Barça fan. Such is his power that major European football clubs are questioning the impartiality of the refs in Barça's European matches. The sheer volume of news articles, blogs and commentaries regarding the Barça bias is mind boggling.
Here are just a few of the articles I've found: Another Prick in The Wall, a name you just gotta love; a post from a Manchester United blogger on ManUtdTalk.com; Platini's dislike of Madrid on Goal.com; Platini's admiration for Barça on Goal.com; an opinion from The Army of White which looks more like a page out of the Ku Klux Klan and which is also posted on Xabi Alonso's Facebook page.
If you're thinking this type of controversy (polemic as they call it here) just started with the arrival of Jose Mourinho, I give you this link of a Barça match played back in 2008. I saw the match on TV. After being reduced to 10 men on a really dubious red card, Espanyol did well to keep Barça at bay. After the full 90 minutes, the game was tied at one goal apiece. Five minutes of injury time were added by the 4th referee. At 6:40 of added time the referee awarded Barça a late penalty on another really questionable call. After Barça made the ensuing spot kick the game was ended.
More recently, Pepe was sent off for a hard foul on Dani Alves during 2011 Champion's League (CL) first leg semifinal match at the Bernabéu. The way Alves was writhing about in pain on the pitch, it would certainly seem like a justifiable call. But was it? See for yourselves in this video. How about the 2010 CL semifinal return match against Inter Milan at the Camp Nou when Thiago Motta fouled Sergio Busquets? Was that worthy of a red card or was it a Busquets dive? See it here for yourselves. Observe how Busquets "peeps" to see if the ref carded Motta. Clearly a performance worthy of an Oscar. In fact, all you have to do is type "Busquets dive" on Google and be amazed at the number of results you get.
Perhaps the referees weren't at the correct viewing angles to see these fouls. Hence, we have to give them the benefit of the doubt. However, this type of theatrics is precisely the justification that warrants the implementation of instant replays.
But it gets worse. In the 2009 CL semifinal return match at Stamford bridge, referee Tom Henning Ovrebo officiated what can only be described as the most scandalous display of Barça favoritism to date. To this day, Ovrebo still gets the occasional death threat email for that match. Just recently, he admitted to errors which cost Chelsea the final of the Champion's League game that year.
So is Real Madrid just being sour grapes or is there really a conspiracy to favor Barcelona? I've already shown that Platini does not disguise his admiration of everything Barça and his disgust for Madrid. But here's the kicker and Mourinho, in his famous "Why?" rant against Barcelona in 2011, was not entirely wrong. The article centers around Senes Erzik, executive vicepresident of UEFA's Referee Committee and right hand man of Angel Maria Villar, president of UEFA's Referee Committee and the Royal Spanish Football Federation. The icing on this cake is that Erzik is also project director at UNICEF. Remember that Barcelona's main sponsor was UNICEF up until the current season. At the very least, there was a very strong vested interest between UEFA and UNICEF to favor Barcelona - money. A club stands to make millions from gate receipts, merchandising and TV rights for every stage they progress in the Champion's League. The eventual winner gets an additional bonus paycheck.
I started this post in Part I by saying that football is the greatest sport in the world with the dumbest rules ever conceived. In the last part, we'll review some these rules.
Saturday, April 21, 2012
El Clásico: where football died (I)
Another match between two of football's greatest rivalries. If recent history has taught us anything it's that these matches are not about football at all
I've always said that football is the greatest sport in the world with the dumbest set of rules ever conceived. As a result, the referee wields the kind of power dictators envy; the kind of power that determines the outcome of matches and the fortunes of clubs and players. As Lord Acton once said, "Power corrupts and absolute power corrupts absolutely."
Tonight we will witness the nth edition of "El Clásico," a match pitting Barcelona vs. Real Madrid (or vice versa), the single biggest club level match currently played and one of the greatest rivalries of all time. Worldwide TV audience is estimated to be 500 million.
In recent times, what was supposed to be a celebration of the "beautiful game" has been anything but. Sloppy play, excessive fouling coupled with B-movie theatrics and the referee's inability to control the match have put into question the impartiality of the arbiter and the hidden agenda of UEFA officials, European football's governing body. More about that later.
If this match were purely about team work, ball control and incredible goal scoring abilities, then there would be nothing to say. However, this match is much more than football. It's politics.
Barça is the darling of Europe. They are that rogue, independence seeking, left leaning, liberal province against the centrist, conservative, controlling power of Madrid. It's David against Goliath. Everybody loves an underdog, especially one that is capable of sticking it to the man.
This resentment towards Madrid dates back to Franco and the Spanish Civil War. Catalonia was one of the most outspoken defenders of the 2nd Spanish Republic, the same republic the International Brigade volunteered to defend against the Nationalist forces of Franco and his Nazi war machine. (Although not officially war time allies, Spain and Germany have always had close ties. This relationship dates back to the reign of Charles V and the Austro-Hungarian Habsburg dynasty in the 15th century) So naturally, after the Nationalist victory, Franco shafted the Barcelona and Basque regions for their separatist desires and imposed strict controls on them for over 40 years. Barça, rightly or wrongly, have always felt suppressed by the yoke of Imperial Spain in general and by the dictatorship of Franco in particular. Franco was pro Catholic Church, the republicans wanted to annihilate it. On top of this, any FCB (Fútbol Club Barcelona) die hard will tell you that one of the greatest players of all time, Alfredo Di Stefano, was "stolen" from Barcelona and recruited to play in Madrid by Franco. You'll have to ask Don Alfredo about that one.
Therefore, even before the match starts, decades of excess mental baggage are hanging over the heads of every local aficionado, regardless of side they're supporting.
(to be continued...)
I've always said that football is the greatest sport in the world with the dumbest set of rules ever conceived. As a result, the referee wields the kind of power dictators envy; the kind of power that determines the outcome of matches and the fortunes of clubs and players. As Lord Acton once said, "Power corrupts and absolute power corrupts absolutely."
Tonight we will witness the nth edition of "El Clásico," a match pitting Barcelona vs. Real Madrid (or vice versa), the single biggest club level match currently played and one of the greatest rivalries of all time. Worldwide TV audience is estimated to be 500 million.
In recent times, what was supposed to be a celebration of the "beautiful game" has been anything but. Sloppy play, excessive fouling coupled with B-movie theatrics and the referee's inability to control the match have put into question the impartiality of the arbiter and the hidden agenda of UEFA officials, European football's governing body. More about that later.
If this match were purely about team work, ball control and incredible goal scoring abilities, then there would be nothing to say. However, this match is much more than football. It's politics.
Barça is the darling of Europe. They are that rogue, independence seeking, left leaning, liberal province against the centrist, conservative, controlling power of Madrid. It's David against Goliath. Everybody loves an underdog, especially one that is capable of sticking it to the man.
This resentment towards Madrid dates back to Franco and the Spanish Civil War. Catalonia was one of the most outspoken defenders of the 2nd Spanish Republic, the same republic the International Brigade volunteered to defend against the Nationalist forces of Franco and his Nazi war machine. (Although not officially war time allies, Spain and Germany have always had close ties. This relationship dates back to the reign of Charles V and the Austro-Hungarian Habsburg dynasty in the 15th century) So naturally, after the Nationalist victory, Franco shafted the Barcelona and Basque regions for their separatist desires and imposed strict controls on them for over 40 years. Barça, rightly or wrongly, have always felt suppressed by the yoke of Imperial Spain in general and by the dictatorship of Franco in particular. Franco was pro Catholic Church, the republicans wanted to annihilate it. On top of this, any FCB (Fútbol Club Barcelona) die hard will tell you that one of the greatest players of all time, Alfredo Di Stefano, was "stolen" from Barcelona and recruited to play in Madrid by Franco. You'll have to ask Don Alfredo about that one.
Therefore, even before the match starts, decades of excess mental baggage are hanging over the heads of every local aficionado, regardless of side they're supporting.
(to be continued...)
Monday, January 23, 2012
Why La Liga will always be second best
Much is said about Spain's first division La Liga football. If you live in Spain you'll hear phrases like "The best league in the world!" or "The best players in the world." True, Spain are the current World and European champions and ranked number one by FIFA.
But having the best players in the world and being the number one ranked national team does not necessarily mean having the best league in the world. When local TV commentators, journalists and sports pundits all say La Liga is the best league in the world, you have to wonder by what parameters "best" is measured.
I can only conclude that "best" is in reference to having Lionel Messi (Barcelona) and Cristiano Ronaldo (Real Madrid) playing in two of Europe's most successful clubs. In fact, the last time a club other than these two won a league championship was back in 2004.
La Liga has become so predictable; there's no parity. If Barcelona doesn't win it, Madrid will or vice versa depending on your inclinations. Two clubs do not a league make but in this case, they do. The combined annual budgets of these two clubs is more than the rest of the eighteen first division teams put together.
Moreover, the rest of the teams never play at 100 percent unless they're playing Madrid or Barça because that's the only bragging right they have left; it's their only prize because they are not going to win anything else. So the only matches worth watching are those involving Madrid or Barça, and then, only to see if they lose.
The second half of the season starts next weekend. Already we know that it's going to be either Madrid (1st) or Barça (2nd) at the top by season's end. There's no other possible outcome.
That's why the English Premier League is, in my opinion, the best in the world. On any given year, any one of five or six teams can take top honors. Aside from Manchester United and Chelsea, you also have Manchester City, Arsenal, Tottenham and Liverpool.
Secondly, and most importantly, the EPL knows how to market its league. They've adjusted their playing times to capture both the North and South American and Asian markets. La Liga has so far discarded favoring the huge Asian market.
Third, the EPL has made inroads in the US. The US is the last major market open to all leagues and it is huge in terms of sponsorships and TV rights. La Liga has only recently tapped into this market but is not as nearly well know as the EPL.
So, is La Liga the best league in the world? Definitely. The second best.
But having the best players in the world and being the number one ranked national team does not necessarily mean having the best league in the world. When local TV commentators, journalists and sports pundits all say La Liga is the best league in the world, you have to wonder by what parameters "best" is measured.
I can only conclude that "best" is in reference to having Lionel Messi (Barcelona) and Cristiano Ronaldo (Real Madrid) playing in two of Europe's most successful clubs. In fact, the last time a club other than these two won a league championship was back in 2004.
La Liga has become so predictable; there's no parity. If Barcelona doesn't win it, Madrid will or vice versa depending on your inclinations. Two clubs do not a league make but in this case, they do. The combined annual budgets of these two clubs is more than the rest of the eighteen first division teams put together.
Moreover, the rest of the teams never play at 100 percent unless they're playing Madrid or Barça because that's the only bragging right they have left; it's their only prize because they are not going to win anything else. So the only matches worth watching are those involving Madrid or Barça, and then, only to see if they lose.
The second half of the season starts next weekend. Already we know that it's going to be either Madrid (1st) or Barça (2nd) at the top by season's end. There's no other possible outcome.
That's why the English Premier League is, in my opinion, the best in the world. On any given year, any one of five or six teams can take top honors. Aside from Manchester United and Chelsea, you also have Manchester City, Arsenal, Tottenham and Liverpool.
Secondly, and most importantly, the EPL knows how to market its league. They've adjusted their playing times to capture both the North and South American and Asian markets. La Liga has so far discarded favoring the huge Asian market.
Third, the EPL has made inroads in the US. The US is the last major market open to all leagues and it is huge in terms of sponsorships and TV rights. La Liga has only recently tapped into this market but is not as nearly well know as the EPL.
So, is La Liga the best league in the world? Definitely. The second best.
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