I called it

So there it is, Bayern Munich vs. Chelsea FC in the finals of this year's Champions League (CL) tournament. All the sports pundits had a Madrid vs. Barcelona final on their betting line but I called this one right.

It's a funny things about sports - people tend to be swayed by their passions, never by statistical probable outcome. Even the oddsmakers, however objective they attempt to be, include intangible factors in their odds predictions. Hence, before the start of the semifinals, the bookmakers at BetFair, for example, predicted that Barcelona (1/6) would qualify for the finals over Chelsea (9/2). Similarly, Madrid (1/2) was favored to qualify over Bayern (6/4).

As far as winning the whole enchilada, Barça was odds on favorite to win at (5/6), with Madrid at (5/2), Bayern at (9/2) and Chelsea, the dark horse, at (10/1). Even after Madrid had lost the first leg 2-1, betting house Bet365 still had them on top (4/7) to win and continue to the finals.

However, after last week's first leg when Chelsea beat Barça 1-0 and Bayern beat Madrid 2-1, I predicted a Bayern-Chelsea final. This prediction had nothing to do with the home teams' respective wins, it was based entirely on the scores.

The strategy behind CL matches once teams reach the round of 16 (2 match series: away and home) is quite simple - score an away goal and don't let your opponent score on the return match. Away goals are important because they are used as tie breakers. Barcelona lost because they didn't score a goal at Stamford Bridge and allowed Chelsea to score at the Nou Camp. Madrid lost, despite having scored a goal at the Allianz Arena, because they allowed Bayern to score at the Bernabéu. Mourinho said it himself, if Bayern want go through to the final, they have to score at the Bernabéu. And that's exactly what they did. It's that simple.

Ok, maybe you're thinking that the BM-RMA series ended in a 3-3 tie with each team having scored an away goal. True and that's why the match went into overtime and then penalties. However, Madrid did not lose because they were fatigued or mentally exhausted or because they had missed 3 out of their first 4 penalties. Madrid did not lose this series at the Bernabéu; they lost it at the Allianz Arena when they allowed Bayern to score the winning goal on the last play of the match, just as Barcelona did not lose the series at the Nou Camp. That series was lost when the Catalans failed to score at Stamford Bridge.

It's not simply a question of scoring more goals than your opponent. Teams at the semifinal stage are usually very evenly matched and game scores reflecting a two or more goal advantage have only occurred in 13 of the the last 44 semifinal matches dating back to the 2000-2001 season. Furthermore, field advantage does not necessarily imply a victory for the home team.

So who's going to win this edition of the Champions League? Everyone says Bayern Munich will win. On paper, they certainly seem to be the stronger of the two teams. But then again, no one gave Chelsea a chance, and yet, here they are. I'm gonna go against the odds on this one and predict a Chelsea win.