Saturday, April 28, 2012

Spanish General Strike: only a matter of time

With the latest unemployment figures just in, Spain's economy is creating a financial black hole that threatens to vaporize the entire eurozone

Place your bets, ladies and gentlemen. How long before we see a second general strike in Spain? The first one was a month ago, just 99 days after Mariano Rajoy and his centrist Partido Popular assumed office. That strike was convened by the traditionally leftist labor unions as a result of Rajoy's austerity program which calls for the deregulation of hiring practices; a reduction of workers compensation, pensions and health care benefits; and the elimination of redundant government ministries and the practice of wasteful project spending (during Zapatero's administration there was actually a government sponsored project to outline and map the woman's clitoris and the labia minora). Additionally, the most indebted autonomous regions have to curtail their budget deficits to meet national projections.

Spain's unemployment currently stands at 25 percent, the highest in Europe. It is estimated that one in three of all unemployed people in the eurozone is Spanish. And the forecast is dim as this figure is expected to increase. The causes are many and I've previously mentioned them here (Mar 27), here (Mar 30), here (Mar 31) and here (Apr 13).

What's clear is that the crisis in Spain is not going to see a turnaround any time soon. There's one fundamental flaw in the government's program. At the same time the government is reducing expenses, they are also increasing taxes of prime commodities to increase revenues. While I understand the need to increase revenues and decrease expenses to reduce the budget deficit, increasing taxes is counter intuitive and will result in the exact opposite of the desired result.

To get the economy moving again, money has to start circulating. In other words, the administration has to restore investor confidence. Reducing workers compensation on the one hand is an incentive for employers and prospective investors, but at the same time, tax increases of prime commodities such as fuel and utilities is a turn off to employers and prospective investors. The incentive the government is offering on one side is being offset by the increased cost of doing business on the other. The net effect is zero benefit. Who, in their right mind, would want to invest under these conditions? Furthermore, the increase of prime commodity taxes creates inflationary pressures at a time when the country can ill afford it. The way I see it, increase taxes and you reduce employment. If you want to decrease unemployment and get money circulating once again, reduce taxes. Unemployment is a double edged sword: less people contributing to social security and more unemployment benefits social security has to pay out. It's not rocket science, the system will fail.

But there's another reason why the Spanish economy will be hard to restart: culture.

Spain is the one country in Europe that has failed to adapt to the international work ethic. For example, businesses routinely take 3 to 4 hour lunch breaks and they do not open on weekends. The big chain stores only open one Sunday a month because the association of mom and pop stores complained that allowing the big stores to open on weekends would put them out of business. And yet for many, the weekends are the only free time they have. I guess no one ever told these mom and pop stores they could close on Monday and Tuesday and open weekends.

Spanish workers also take a month off with pay in July or August during which time businesses shut down except in tourist areas. That means employers are paying employees during a month in which production is zero. It wreaks havoc on cash flow and budget planning.

Still, on average, the Spanish work more hours per week than their European counterparts. The problem is they are also less productive. Spanish workers, for example, work 9 hours more per week than the Belgians but are only 50 percent as productive.

So what's the point of working more hours if nothing is getting done anyway? Might as well just shut down early and at least save on electricity and air-conditioning, right? Well, a lot of it has to do with image and justification. It's bad for their image to admit they are not hard working (they aren't) and they use the extra hours stat to justify they are not lazy (they are). In fact an often heard phrase in Spain is vivir del cuento which basically means "the gift of gab and living off it". Spain takes pride in being different; I would seriously reconsider that self assessment as it may just be their own undoing.

Unions leaders are quick to point out they fought hard to achieve the worker benefits Spain now enjoys. False. They didn't have to fight for anything, it was handed to them on a silver platter when the joined the European Union. Europe poured in the funds and as they say over here, se vivió del cuento. And so far, Spain has been an epic fail on the economic front.

The only question that remains is when is the second general strike going to take place. My guess is before the summer break. What happened in Greece, that was child's play compared to what's going to happen here.

Friday, April 27, 2012

The importance of the five day weather forecast

Most people don't realize the importance of the international 5-day weather forecast. Here's why we should be paying more attention.

During the last presidential elections between PNoy and GMA, some friends asked me whom I would support.

"Well," I said, "I'll support the candidate who can guarantee to consistently put Manila on CNN's and BBC's 5-day weather forecast. I'll even settle for a mention on the each network's daily regional weather forecast."

Needless to say the topic never even came up in any of the campaign speeches of either candidate. And my friends either ignored me as being frivolous or thought I was absolutely batty; nobody seemed to understand my oblique reasoning.

I was being deadly serious.

Think about it. Why do these channels provide weather forecasts? After all, local TV channels provide more extensive coverage. So why would you watch a BBC or CNN weather forecast? Well, you wouldn't...unless you were traveling. And who are the most frequent travelers? Businessmen. And to where do they travel? To the region's business centers. Therefore, it should come as no surprise that the same cities always seem to hog the weather forecasts: Singapore, Hong Kong, Seoul, Taipei, Kuala Lumpur.

And that speaks volumes about Manila. The Philippines, which was poised to become an emerging tiger economy in the early 90s, has fallen so far behind its neighbors that it now ranks below Vietnam as a business destination. In fact, it doesn't even appear on this Wall Street Journal (SE Asian Edition) list of Asia's most attractive cities. It gets worse. This CNBC list of the World's Ten Worst Countries for Business has the Philippines down as the fourth worst country in the world to do business. Although I suppose a lot of it has to do with the welcoming committee as well as the corruption. CNNgo.com has NAIA listed as the 5th worst airport in the world.

So next time you watch CNN or BBC, note the weather forecast. Now you know why those cities always appear and Manila only appears sporadically. It's because those cities are frequent flyer destinations, they're business centers.

On the next presidential elections, ask your candidate if he or she can guarantee putting Manila on the weather forecast map. If the candidate looks at you and laughs becuase he or she has no idea what you're talking about, don't vote for that person. If, on the other hand, the candidate says "yes", it means that person has a plan to get the economy back on its feet. It means he or she has a plan to end corruption. It means there's still hope.

Thursday, April 26, 2012

I called it

So there it is, Bayern Munich vs. Chelsea FC in the finals of this year's Champions League (CL) tournament. All the sports pundits had a Madrid vs. Barcelona final on their betting line but I called this one right.

It's a funny things about sports - people tend to be swayed by their passions, never by statistical probable outcome. Even the oddsmakers, however objective they attempt to be, include intangible factors in their odds predictions. Hence, before the start of the semifinals, the bookmakers at BetFair, for example, predicted that Barcelona (1/6) would qualify for the finals over Chelsea (9/2). Similarly, Madrid (1/2) was favored to qualify over Bayern (6/4).

As far as winning the whole enchilada, Barça was odds on favorite to win at (5/6), with Madrid at (5/2), Bayern at (9/2) and Chelsea, the dark horse, at (10/1). Even after Madrid had lost the first leg 2-1, betting house Bet365 still had them on top (4/7) to win and continue to the finals.

However, after last week's first leg when Chelsea beat Barça 1-0 and Bayern beat Madrid 2-1, I predicted a Bayern-Chelsea final. This prediction had nothing to do with the home teams' respective wins, it was based entirely on the scores.

The strategy behind CL matches once teams reach the round of 16 (2 match series: away and home) is quite simple - score an away goal and don't let your opponent score on the return match. Away goals are important because they are used as tie breakers. Barcelona lost because they didn't score a goal at Stamford Bridge and allowed Chelsea to score at the Nou Camp. Madrid lost, despite having scored a goal at the Allianz Arena, because they allowed Bayern to score at the Bernabéu. Mourinho said it himself, if Bayern want go through to the final, they have to score at the Bernabéu. And that's exactly what they did. It's that simple.

Ok, maybe you're thinking that the BM-RMA series ended in a 3-3 tie with each team having scored an away goal. True and that's why the match went into overtime and then penalties. However, Madrid did not lose because they were fatigued or mentally exhausted or because they had missed 3 out of their first 4 penalties. Madrid did not lose this series at the Bernabéu; they lost it at the Allianz Arena when they allowed Bayern to score the winning goal on the last play of the match, just as Barcelona did not lose the series at the Nou Camp. That series was lost when the Catalans failed to score at Stamford Bridge.

It's not simply a question of scoring more goals than your opponent. Teams at the semifinal stage are usually very evenly matched and game scores reflecting a two or more goal advantage have only occurred in 13 of the the last 44 semifinal matches dating back to the 2000-2001 season. Furthermore, field advantage does not necessarily imply a victory for the home team.

So who's going to win this edition of the Champions League? Everyone says Bayern Munich will win. On paper, they certainly seem to be the stronger of the two teams. But then again, no one gave Chelsea a chance, and yet, here they are. I'm gonna go against the odds on this one and predict a Chelsea win.

Wednesday, April 25, 2012

What manner of pride becomes you?

A few posts ago I railed about Spanish pride. Maybe you thought I was being facetious. Well, here's further proof

Chelsea Football Club has made it through to the the finals of the Champions League after playing a courageous match at the Nou Camp despite being a man down. Apparently that's not the really big news in Spanish sporting dailies. The big news is the front page of today's (April 25, 2012) The Sun, that cheesy English tabloid owned by Rupert Murdoch.

The front page headline says: "Terry sent off; Messi misses pen; Chelsea reach Champions League final...but most incredible of all: TORRES SCORES!"

Well, the backlash of that headline was incredible. Marca headlined it "Intolerable: The Sun makes fun of Torres' goal."

If we were talking about any other non-Spanish footballer, The Sun's headline would not have even raised an eyebrow. But because Torres is Spanish, it is a slap in the face to all Spaniards. I mean, the nerve of these Brits! How dare they! What are they trying to imply, that Torres scored out of sheer luck...that he doesn't possess the skills to score of his own accord? How dare they insult us in this manner, harrumph, harrumph!

But wait, there's more! If you continue reading, I will also include links to the Guiñol scandal (French muppets) at no extra charge!

A few months ago, Alberto Contador, 2010 Tour de France winner, was stripped of his title after being found guilty by the CAS (Court of Arbitration for Sport) of using Clenbuterol, a performance enhancing drug. Well, needless to say, the French jumped all over that one and parodied it on their Guiñol program (Canal+).

It gets even better. The show was so successful, Canal+ decided to up the ante a bit and produced another skit based on Rafael Nadal's physical prowess, which is actually quite funny. The icing on the cake was the Guiñol that showed several Spanish professional athletes, including Iker Casillas and Pau Gasol, signing contracts with a steroid-filled syringe.

Mon Dieu! Sacré bleu, quelle sacrilege!

Suffice it to say the Spanish were up in arms and made all sorts of calls to denounce and boycott the French. Sure, Spanish pride was hurt. But seriously, sue the French over some satirical review? Can you imagine if George W. Bush went about suing every late night talk show because they ridiculed and made fun of him? Jay Leno, David Letterman, Jimmy Fallon, Jimmy Kimmel, Conan O'brien would all be out of a job.

I reiterate, Spain suffers from national collective inferiority complex. And it is precisely their reaction to ridicule and satire that proves my point. Had they chosen not to react so vehemently against the French, no one would have even noticed or paid attention to the Guiñol.

Spain feels, rightly or wrongly, that they deserve to be one of the world's influencers. I can only say that if they continue with their downtrodden persecuted attitude, they'll never be considered for anything.

The old adage still rings true: if it doesn't apply, let it fly.

Monday, April 23, 2012

El Clásico: where football died (the prequel to the epilogue)

Just a quick update

I forgot to post these other videos in my previous post. A family of Real Madrid fans is accosted in the Reyno de Navarra during RMA's 5-1 drubbing of Osasuna and a Real Madrid fan is beaten up in the Nou Camp in last Saturday's El Clásico. Why do I post them? Only to show that everybody hates Madrid for the reasons I mentioned previously. However, it is a sorry sight when grown men bully a little kid and his family simply for displaying his team's colors.

Again, this behavior is symptomatic of the way the socialists, who have ruled Spain for all but 8 years since 1982, deal with the electorate. If you've read my earlier posts about Spanish pride, you'll realize there is no unity in Spain. It's "I, me, mine" first and the country second. Therefore, as a democracy, socialists believe in freedom of expression but only if your opinion jibes with theirs. Otherwise, don't even bother to express it.

Don't believe me? This is the best proof of all. A few weeks ago a local football TV program, Punto Pelota, decided to try and get some information on the renewal of Pep Guardiola as Barça's head coach. To obtain the information they recruited the help of Miguel Garcia, president of the L'Hospitalet de Llobregat football team, a second division team, at a Barcelona awards ceremony. Together with the Punto Pelota cameraman, Garcia went about asking several club directors if they knew anything about Pep's renewal. Josep Maria Bartomeu, vicepresident of the club, answered he was "fucking clueless" (ni puta idea). The full video is here.

Big deal, right? Not so Barcelona. The club swiftly rescinded Punto Pelota's press accreditation and banned the show from attending any of the club's press conferences. Why? Because it put Barça in a bad light. Can you imagine if politicians could do that to members of the press that weren't exactly sympathetic to their platforms? This is further proof of that Spanish pride and arrogance I mentioned previously. No one is exempt from making mistakes but it appears that some are more perfect than others.

El Clásico: where football died (the sequel)

The beautiful game is not so beautiful

I mentioned UEFA's hidden agenda in Part I of this post. Actually, it's not so hidden. Michel Platini, head of UEFA, has on numerous occasions stated that he is a Barça fan. Such is his power that major European football clubs are questioning the impartiality of the refs in Barça's European matches. The sheer volume of news articles, blogs and commentaries regarding the Barça bias is mind boggling.

Here are just a few of the articles I've found: Another Prick in The Wall, a name you just gotta love; a post from a Manchester United blogger on ManUtdTalk.com; Platini's dislike of Madrid on Goal.com; Platini's admiration for Barça on Goal.com; an opinion from The Army of White which looks more like a page out of the Ku Klux Klan and which is also posted on Xabi Alonso's Facebook page.

If you're thinking this type of controversy (polemic as they call it here) just started with the arrival of Jose Mourinho, I give you this link of a Barça match played back in 2008. I saw the match on TV. After being reduced to 10 men on a really dubious red card, Espanyol did well to keep Barça at bay. After the full 90 minutes, the game was tied at one goal apiece. Five minutes of injury time were added by the 4th referee. At 6:40 of added time the referee awarded Barça a late penalty on another really questionable call. After Barça made the ensuing spot kick the game was ended.

More recently, Pepe was sent off for a hard foul on Dani Alves during 2011 Champion's League (CL) first leg semifinal match at the Bernabéu. The way Alves was writhing about in pain on the pitch, it would certainly seem like a justifiable call. But was it? See for yourselves in this video. How about the 2010 CL semifinal return match against Inter Milan at the Camp Nou when Thiago Motta fouled Sergio Busquets? Was that worthy of a red card or was it a Busquets dive? See it here for yourselves. Observe how Busquets "peeps" to see if the ref carded Motta. Clearly a performance worthy of an Oscar. In fact, all you have to do is type "Busquets dive" on Google and be amazed at the number of results you get.

Perhaps the referees weren't at the correct viewing angles to see these fouls. Hence, we have to give them the benefit of the doubt. However, this type of theatrics is precisely the justification that warrants the implementation of instant replays.

But it gets worse. In the 2009 CL semifinal return match at Stamford bridge, referee Tom Henning Ovrebo officiated what can only be described as the most scandalous display of Barça favoritism to date. To this day, Ovrebo still gets the occasional death threat email for that match. Just recently, he admitted to errors which cost Chelsea the final of the Champion's League game that year.

So is Real Madrid just being sour grapes or is there really a conspiracy to favor Barcelona? I've already shown that Platini does not disguise his admiration of everything Barça and his disgust for Madrid. But here's the kicker and Mourinho, in his famous "Why?" rant against Barcelona in 2011, was not entirely wrong. The article centers around Senes Erzik, executive vicepresident of UEFA's Referee Committee and right hand man of Angel Maria Villar, president of UEFA's Referee Committee and the Royal Spanish Football Federation. The icing on this cake is that Erzik is also project director at UNICEF. Remember that Barcelona's main sponsor was UNICEF up until the current season. At the very least, there was a very strong vested interest between UEFA and UNICEF to favor Barcelona - money. A club stands to make millions from gate receipts, merchandising and TV rights for every stage they progress in the Champion's League. The eventual winner gets an additional bonus paycheck.

I started this post in Part I by saying that football is the greatest sport in the world with the dumbest rules ever conceived. In the last part, we'll review some these rules.

Saturday, April 21, 2012

El Clásico: where football died (I)

Another match between two of football's greatest rivalries. If recent history has taught us anything it's that these matches are not about football at all

I've always said that football is the greatest sport in the world with the dumbest set of rules ever conceived. As a result, the referee wields the kind of power dictators envy; the kind of power that determines the outcome of matches and the fortunes of clubs and players. As Lord Acton once said, "Power corrupts and absolute power corrupts absolutely."

Tonight we will witness the nth edition of "El Clásico," a match pitting Barcelona vs. Real Madrid (or vice versa), the single biggest club level match currently played and one of the greatest rivalries of all time. Worldwide TV audience is estimated to be 500 million.

In recent times, what was supposed to be a celebration of the "beautiful game" has been anything but. Sloppy play, excessive fouling coupled with B-movie theatrics and the referee's inability to control the match have put into question the impartiality of the arbiter and the hidden agenda of UEFA officials, European football's governing body. More about that later.

If this match were purely about team work, ball control and incredible goal scoring abilities, then there would be nothing to say. However, this match is much more than football. It's politics.

Barça is the darling of Europe. They are that rogue, independence seeking, left leaning, liberal province against the centrist, conservative, controlling power of Madrid. It's David against Goliath. Everybody loves an underdog, especially one that is capable of sticking it to the man.

This resentment towards Madrid dates back to Franco and the Spanish Civil War. Catalonia was one of the most outspoken defenders of the 2nd Spanish Republic, the same republic the International Brigade volunteered to defend against the Nationalist forces of Franco and his Nazi war machine. (Although not officially war time allies, Spain and Germany have always had close ties. This relationship dates back to the reign of Charles V and the Austro-Hungarian Habsburg dynasty in the 15th century) So naturally, after the Nationalist victory, Franco shafted the Barcelona and Basque regions for their separatist desires and imposed strict controls on them for over 40 years. Barça, rightly or wrongly, have always felt suppressed by the yoke of Imperial Spain in general and by the dictatorship of Franco in particular. Franco was pro Catholic Church, the republicans wanted to annihilate it. On top of this, any FCB (Fútbol Club Barcelona) die hard will tell you that one of the greatest players of all time, Alfredo Di Stefano, was "stolen" from Barcelona and recruited to play in Madrid by Franco. You'll have to ask Don Alfredo about that one.

Therefore, even before the match starts, decades of excess mental baggage are hanging over the heads of every local aficionado, regardless of side they're supporting.

(to be continued...)