Talk about having a bad day.
The confluence of the stars must have been propitious. Today was one of the worst news days in recent memory. Let me give you a sampling:
- Spain 'to request bank aid tomorrow' - The Independent
- Ruud Gullit: 'There were monkey chants at Dutch Euro 2012 training' - The Telegraph
- Mick Fleetwood: Bob Welch's Suicide Was 'Out of Character' - Rolling Stone
- What the password leaks mean to you (FAQ) - CNet
- Princes William and Harry join Euro 2012 boycott over Ukraine's treatment of jailed opposition leader Yulia Tymoshenko - Daily Mail Online
- Police investigate possible link between gay porn star 'cannibal killer' Luka Rocco Magnotta and body parts under Hollywood sign - The Independent
- Bus bombing kills at least 18 in northwestern Pakistan - Washington Post
And of course, there's Syria. The headlines coming out of Syria are just too numerous to list here but the Telegraph updates its page every couple of minutes.
It seems we have it all today, from racism and boycotts in sports to a snuff film murderer, terrorist bombings, failed economies and wholesale massacres. Someone is having a heyday out there.
And while all these headlines are serious, the Syrian conflict is limited and confined to the region...for now. The Spanish bailout, on the other hand, poses the greatest peace time threat because it is affecting millions of lives and has the potential to affect many more. It's effects will be felt world-wide and could have long lasting consequences. I previously mentioned that Europe cannot afford to stand idly by while Spain's finances vaporize into radioactive dust; the fallout would be brutal.
The question is, if you're Germany, what do you do? Do you agree to a bailout package and hope the 4th largest European economy recovers? What happens if they don't? Much of Spain's financial problems are structural. In other words, when times were good, there was very little fiscal responsibility; money flowed in and civil service employment rose to an all time high in order to sugar coat unemployment figures. The problem? Once you become a civil servant, you have a job for life. You cannot get fired under any circumstance for any reason. The result? Spain has more civil servants per capita than any other nation in Europe. So when the country faces a budget deficit and is forced to fiscalize, public spending cutbacks are hard to come by. To make matters worse, Spain has one of the most unproductive work forces in the eurozone (see my previous posts for sources).
Conversely, do you make an example of Spain, deny the additional funds, tell Rajoy they have to go it alone regardless of the consequences and hope the lesson is digested and assimilated by Italy, Greece, Portugal and Ireland?
Either way, Germany is caught between a rock and hard place.
If they do provide the 60 billion euro package Spain is requesting, it will tie up much needed funds at a time when Spain's financial rating is the lowest it's ever been. Additionally, the German people, understandably, are beginning to get fed up with having to bail out all these Mediterranean nations and that may cost Merkel at the ballots. If they don't come to the rescue, Germany loses credibility, prestige and leadership. That plus the whole euro ball of wax may just unravel and plunge financial markets back to the dark ages.
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